PV Learning curve and Cost reduction
- It is obvious that the cost reduction in the PV production process would result in the price reduction. The graph below displays the average module sales price in 2011 as a function of cumulative module shipment from 1976 to December 2013.
- Module shipments have been ahead of PV system installation for years.
- The log scale displayed in the graph shows that the plot is linear upto 3.1 GWp despite that, there is a sharp twist in the curve at 100 MWp, which indicates that for every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases with a Learning Rate (LR) of 21%. The large deviation from the LR is due to the market fluctuations which took place in 2003.
- The first point below 1 USD/Wp denotes that the average module price at the end of year 2011 has shipped 77 GWp with the average module price of 0.95 USD/Wp.
- Large amount of supply between 2011 to 2012 caused the price drop to 0.69 USD/Wp with the shipment of 110 GWp.
- The final data point, in the graph, estimates the shipment volume in 2013 to be about 39 GWp at the price of 0.72 USD/Wp
- Hence it can be seen that the target of 100 GWp has been exceeded in 2012 and the present cumulated module power shipped is (110+39) = 149 GWp approximately.
(The figure denotes the learning curve for average module sales price in USD as a function of cumulative PV module shipments in MWp)