PV Learning curve and Cost reduction

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  • It is obvious that the cost reduction in the PV production process would result in the price reduction. The graph below displays the average module sales price in 2011 as a function of cumulative module shipment from 1976 to December 2013.
  • Module shipments have been ahead of PV system installation for years.
  • The log scale displayed in the graph shows that the plot is linear upto 3.1 GWp despite that, there is a sharp twist in the curve at 100 MWp, which indicates that for every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases with a Learning Rate (LR) of 21%. The large deviation from the LR is due to the market fluctuations which took place in 2003.
  • The first point below 1 USD/Wp denotes that the average module price at the end of year 2011 has shipped 77 GWp with the average module price of 0.95 USD/Wp.
  • Large amount of supply between 2011 to 2012 caused the price drop to 0.69 USD/Wp with the shipment of 110 GWp.
  • The final data point, in the graph, estimates the shipment volume in 2013 to be about 39 GWp at the price of 0.72 USD/Wp
  • Hence it can be seen that the target of 100 GWp has been exceeded in 2012 and the present cumulated module power shipped is (110+39) = 149 GWp approximately.module SP Cumm PV shp

 

 

(The figure denotes the learning curve for average module sales price in USD as a function of cumulative PV module shipments in MWp)

 

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